April 19, 2004

Economic Development

Chris Jones (email) at 06:25 PM

So, Mme. Speaker, the UASU webboard, in one of its saner moments, is discussing Alberta's economic development. Mr. Knisely, never known for his grasp on reality, claims that Alberta would still have a strong economy were oil to disappear. Meanwhile, Mr. Kotovych writes:

Alberta's politicians have shown distressingly little foresight in actually building up an economy that doesn't involve oil or its rural communities.

Unsurprisingly, futher discussion (notably Messrs. Carey, Knisely, Kotovych, and once again, Carey) get into the sort of urinary-ability contest for which the UASU webboard is justly infamous. Fellow member M. Mustafa Hirji then asks:

What should the Alberta government be doing differently?
And why is, say, Ontario better off than Manitoba?

Well, Mme. Speaker, it seems obvious to me that Alberta is richer than the other two Prairie provinces because of oil (well, oil and natural gas and coal): if you look at Alberta pre-Leduc, there was little distinction between the three provinces --- in fact, Alberta was at times the least-populous and poorest. As an astute student of history, Mme. Speaker, you will be aware that Alberta was the first province to default on its debt, in 1936.

But then, why is Ontario better off than Manitoba? Ontario is, at first glance, better off because it has a more diverse resource base, is better situated to export its goods and services, and was settled earlier, leading to earlier infrastructure and denser settlement. In short, it appears that it's due to extrinsic factors, rather than anything the province of Ontario itself did.

How can a province seek economic development, and if it can, should the government do so, and if it should, how ought it to? It seems to me that there are three means to development (excluding, for the moment, strictly intra-provincial trade): first, to extract more resources from the earth and sell them outside the province; second, to refine resources into finished goods, thus increasing the value of such goods; and third, to provide services to entities outside the province.

Given that natural resources are finite, there's a clear limit on how much further Alberta can develop by means of extraction: every barrel of oil removed from the ground is a barrel that can't be removed later, when oil prices may well have increased, every tree cut down is a tree that can't be cut down next year, and every hectare of wheat grown is a hectare of land that can't be used for housing, forests, or wildlife. While it may very well be the case that Alberta is not near the limits of its development in the primary sector, the primary sector alone is vulnerable to fluctuations in world prices, making it unsuitable to base an entire economy upon.

Second, refinement. While this is superficially viable, Alberta is a long way from the markets for most goods made from its resources. In many cases (for example, sulfur), it's much cheaper to simply ship the large quantities of raw product elsewhere, and then ship the small quantities of finished product needed, back. This could be, to some extent, alleviated by means of improved transportation links, but there's a limit on how far this can take you.

That leaves the tertiary service sector for further development. More on that later, Madame Speaker.

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