Survival ... For Now

Well, the government's survived, says the TV. Cadman supported the Government, tieing the vote 152 – 152, and forcing Speaker Peter to cast the deciding vote. So it's all over, right?

Wrong. The motion before the House today was simply to read C-48 for the second time and refer it to committee. The House didn't "pass" the budget or anything like that: they simply took a necessary, but not sufficient, step in doing so. Next up, the budgets go to the finance committee, and get returned to the House for third reading. After that's done, they hit the Senate, bounce around there for a few weeks, and then get Royal Assent.

Now, why did the Speaker cast the deciding vote? Because the House was tied and couldn't make up his mind. But when the Speaker casts a vote, he does so in accordance with the tradition that the Speaker votes to continue debate and let the House come to a decision. As the Speaker acknowledged in his speech immediately before casting his vote, that means that second reading goes through.

But wait a second! There's still third reading to go. And barring any further poaching by the Liberanos, sudden illnesses, and the like, the House will continue to be tied. So that punts the decision back into the Speaker's hands. What's different between second reading and third reading? After third reading, there's no more debate — so the Speaker has to vote against the bill in order to let the House continue debate.

The drama ain't over yet, folks.

As a side note, CTV: less commentary. And don't have Craig Oliver do analysis while PMPM's speaking. Sheesh.

Update: I've been reminded about the existence of the by-election in Labrador. That would avoid a repeat, assuming nothing else changes. In light of speculation that third reading might not happen until well into summer or possibly even fall, I wouldn't take a bet on everything staying the same.....