May 06, 2007
Targets' Targets, or Environmental Economics 303
When implementing emission targets, it's necessary to consider who the target of the targets is to be: that is, are the limits being implemented on a source-by-source basis, on an entity-by-entity basis, on an industry-by-industry basis, or on an aggregate basis? This is, in fact, crucially important to figuring out whether the targets are achievable and whether they're efficient.
Let's start by assuming that there's some cost to abating emissions from the level which would be chosen absent regulation (we'll call this the cost of abatement) and that there's some damage caused by emissions. The condition we need for an economically-efficient outcome is that the marginal cost of abatement should be equal to the marginal damage: that is, the cost of preventing a tonne of CO2 from being emitted should be equal to the damage that tonne would cause if it were emitted. We can argue about whether or not that's an appropriate way to determine how much we should pollute, but for the moment, let's accept it as given.
Carbon dioxide's a neat case, because the marginal damage caused by another tonne emitted is essentially location-independent: we don't really care whether that tonne comes from Canada, the US, or China, and we don't really care whether it comes from a car, trees decaying in a forest, or what have you. Since CO2 mixes quickly into the atmosphere and diffuses globally, a tonne's a tonne the whole world 'round. (This isn't true, for instance, with local (ground-level ozone, water contamination) or regional (sulfur dioxide) pollutants.) In principle, we can figure out how much damage a tonne of CO2 will cost the planet as a whole.
That brings us to the next crucial point: the cost of emissions abatement isn't necessarily the same for all polluters. Consider two coal-fired power plants, one of which is sixty years old and would need to be retrofitted with scrubbers requiring a shutdown and substantial redesign, and the other which is in the construction phase and has scrubbers planned: clearly, the cost of abating CO2 emissions from the first plant will be higher than that from the second. I'm sure you can find other illustrations (e.g. hybrid cars versus Hummers). In fact, it's exceedingly unlikely that everyone will have the same cost to abate!
Now, why's this an important point? Well, if we're imposing emissions targets across the board, as Mustafa's previous example supposes, such that if you had previously emitted 1 MT but would now be limited to 0.9 MT, we end up with a higher societal cost of abatement because we're making some high abatement cost emitters abate beyond the point of marginal damage equalling marginal abatement cost, and we're making some low-abatement-cost emitters abate too little. And to make it even worse, the more fine-grained we get --- "this unit at this power plant can now only emit 0.9 MT" v. "this power plant as a whole can only emit 4.5 MT" --- the less efficient we're likely to be!
So, what's the way out of this? Next time, I'll explain why a tax isn't much better than simply imposing limits by fiat, and why there's a better alternative.
Archive URL for this entry: http://www.pointsofinformation.ca/archives/individual/2007/05/06/cdjones_targets_targets_or_environmental_economics_303_532.html
TrackBack URL for this entry: http://www.pointsofinformation.ca/poi-ping.cgi/501
