Crazy Election Prediction

Well, Harper's once again sold out his principles and called an election despite his fixed election date act (yes he legally can do it, no it's against the spirit of the law).

Here is my prediction in the James Bow Election Pool:

Conservative arrogance and Dion's surprisingly effective advocacy of the carbon tax will allow Dion to pick up votes of disaffected independents and young people, inspired to try and change things by Obama's message in the U.S. As he rises in the polls, the BQ's who's become irrelevant will see their voters defect, and the NDP will see their voters defect as they go for the party that could actually win. The Greens, outmanoeuvred by Dion on the environment, will fall back to zero seats. Voter turnout will rise on the back of the in-fluxing young voters.

Conservatives will still do well on the back of Harper's leadership and record, and on worries that the carbon tax will hurt the economy, but the consolidating left vote will be enough for Dion to eek out a plurality.

Liberals: 135
Conservatives: 124
Bloc Quebecois: 34
New Democrats: 14
Greens: 0
Independents: 1

Voter Turnout: 68%